Daily Log - July 30, 2025

We were in a range from the open, with prices moving up and down inside an 11-point zone. After a strong move to the top of the range, there was a sharp leg down. I didn’t expect the down channel to get a retest, so I skipped a decent second entry short (2ES).

Price made a strong attempt to form a new low but failed. A visual failed second entry long (F2EL) set up with a great-looking signal bar, and I took the trade — but in hindsight, the setup wasn’t clean. Price had already moved too far from the EMA, and the short-term downtrend looked more like two legs down. There were several reasons to skip this one next time. At least the signal bar was small, so the risk was limited — but the context just didn’t support the entry. Ended up being a loser.

After that, price moved all the way back to the top of the range — and once again, there were no good entries on the way up. At the top, a sketchy second entry long (2EL) formed, and while the uptrend did need a new high, it wasn’t a setup I felt good about. A higher low (HL) came in that confirmed the 2EL, but I wasn’t ready to take another trade right into the edge of the range. I skipped it — and of course, it worked.

Things slowed down significantly ahead of the FOMC statement. Not much happened when the news was released, but once Powell started talking, the market took a nose dive and got very volatile. A steep downtrend formed quickly, but there was no real way to get in — no clean setups in that fast-moving environment.