Daily Log - July 15, 2025

The day started with two legs up during the overnight session. After the open, the market reversed and broke below the overnight lows, kicking off a new downtrend.

I was determined to take a trade today after three straight days without one. A second entry short (2ES) setup formed after price pulled back to the widened downtrend channel and got rejected. The setup was a failed breakout (FBO) from congestion with a strong signal bar just below the EMA. It wasn’t a great setup—but it looked good enough to take a chance on, especially after waiting several days with no trades. Unfortunately, it turned out to be a loser. In hindsight, the setup had a few red flags: the short-term uptrend hadn’t made a new high, the congestion area was pretty messy on the main chart, and price had just come from the overnight low—suggesting the downtrend might already have played out. On top of that, the overall structure was starting to resemble a range.

After that loss, price broke out of the wider downtrend channel, and a few solid setups followed. But I missed them—partly because of shaken confidence from the losing trade, and partly because I wasn’t convinced the downtrend structure was still valid.

Missed Trade #1:
A failed second entry long (F2EL) and 2ES combination. Price had made a break and a two-legged correction of the channel. Once price broke below the EMA and it started holding again, this was a clean opportunity. But after the earlier loss, I hesitated and didn’t pull the trigger.

Missed Trade #2:
A lower high (LH) that confirmed a second entry short. It came just after a new attempt at a lower low, and I second-guessed the context. The setup was valid, but I passed again—still feeling uncertain from the earlier loser.

Overall, a frustrating day. The market gave a few decent chances, but the only trade I took didn’t work out. That’s just how it goes sometimes. What matters is I didn’t spiral into poor decision-making. I stayed patient, even if it cost me some opportunities. Tomorrow is a new day.